Advance Plans Committee: 2003-4 Comprehensive Plan Update

Summary of Meeting #10
7:30 am, March 11, 2004
Attendance
Committee Members: 	Morris Dunlap, Bud Hentzen, John McKay, M.S. Mitchell
MAPD staff: 		Dave Barber, Nalini Johnson, Stephen Banks, Scott Wadle	


Discussion Summary

1.	Election of Committee Chairman.   Mitch Mitchell was elected as the new chair 
of the Advance Plans Committee.

2.	Discussion on the Parks and Open Space Master Plan.  Staff mentioned that 
Scott Wadle will doing some background work related to the pathways update to 
the Parks and Open Space Master Plan.  Some Committee members voiced the 
opinion that there was never proper funding for the plan, and that for that reason, 
the plan has not been as useful as it might be.  Several Committee members 
mentioned the need to revise the plan. 

3.	Presentation and Discussion of 2030 Population and Employment Control 
Numbers as the Basis for the 2003-04 Comprehensive Plan Update.  Stephen 
Banks presented the population estimates as developed by staff and WSU.

a.	The population estimates provided by Janet Harrah at WSU predicted a 
2030 population for the Sedgwick County of nearly 539,000.  The WSU 
prediction was notably less than the 567,000 forecast produced by MAPD 
staff in 1999.  Staff felt that all the forecast signs still point to a population 
of 567,000 by 2030.  Accordingly, the 2030 population forecast proposed 
by MAPD for Sedgwick County is 567,000.   The 2030 population 
forecast for the Wichita urbanized area is 580,000.  MAPD staff 
concluded that Sedgwick County will experience the following rates of 
population growth in the future: 1.1 percent growth to 2010; 0.7 percent 
growth after 2010.

b.	The revised estimates proposed by MAPD staff provide a control number 
that needs to be distributed among the various Sedgwick County 
municipalities.  Areas where city boundaries adjoin each other will see a 
spill-over effect from one municipality into another. This is one reason 
why the distribution of the population will require more time and a more 
lengthy process to complete.  

i.	Various examples of population distribution both of adjoining 
municipalities and isolated municipalities were presented and 
discussed during the meeting.

ii.	The appropriation of population to the Wichita downtown/core 
area was questioned and discussed.  Staff described the estimates 
as taking into account the growth in Old Town, the development of 
the Water Walk, and the general revitalization of the core area as a 
result of the new developments.

iii.	Committee members asked what is the downside to overestimating 
the population of municipalities, and are there advantages for over 
estimating population?   Staff responded that there are no penalties 
for overestimating when making consideration for infrastructure 
planning purposes.

c.	MAPD staff felt that the employment estimates provided by WSU failed 
to take into account an increasingly larger participation rate for older 
persons in the workforce.   That assumption combined with the number of 
commuters from outside the county, outlying employment opportunities, 
and developing urban areas brought MAPD staff to develop the 
employment forecast of 362,000 in the Sedgwick County labor force by 
2030.  Committee members asked if there would be a labor shortage in the 
future?   Staff commented that due to the increased participation rate of 
older persons in the labor force combined with increased migration rates, a 
labor shortage may not be an issue in the future.

d.	Committee members questioned the need to spend $10,000-12,000 to hire 
WSU to produce the population and work force estimates.  Staff pointed 
out that the figures produced by WSU provide an independent baseline to 
measure staff estimates against.

The next Advanced Plans Committee meeting was set for April 8th at 7:30 am.